Matakite pūtea - ohaoha taputapu whakamahere

matakite pūtea - he tikanga mo te whakamahi o ngā tikanga motuhake mo te tātai o taketake tohu pūtea. Ko te tikanga matua ngā matakite econometric, te whakatauira pāngarau, trending me te tohungatanga.

A, no te whakamahi i te tauira pāngarau rite te pūtake mō ngā tātaitanga o te tauira whakatau-hanga whakaurua tino pai hōtaka rārangi. whakamahia hoki waka me te whatunga tauira.

matakite pūtea whai wāhi te whakamahi o te matakite ōhanga, e hāngai ana i runga i nga parau tumu o tatauranga me te ariā ohaoha. I roto i te mau parau te tahi atu, kawea te tātaitanga o te ngā taumata i roto i runga i te pūtake o ngā tawhā tatauranga te whakamahi i tētahi, ētahi rānei o te taurangi ōhanga e kua riro ki pūkete rite ngā āhuatanga e pa ana i te hua matapae. Ko te akiaki a te tohu tātarihia, tango ki āhuatanga pūkete e whai he pānga nui i runga i nga tukanga pūtea.

Hoki te hanga o tauira econometric whakamahia tātari inenga, e taea ana ki te ine i te tauwaenga, kua i puta i roto i te ōhanga i roto i te wā turanga. Ki te whakapai ake e te tika o te hua whiwhi i roto i nga tikanga o forecasting nga tohu pūtea matua kia kō atu e tata tohunga.

Tikanga o whakaritenga tohunga whakamahia mo te kōtuitui me te tukatuka o whakaritenga pāngarau o tohunga - tohunga i runga i te kaupapa ngā. Ko te whai huatanga o tenei tikanga, tei runga i te mātau me te ngaio. pea te matapae tika feunga tiketike. kotahi anake drawback ki tenei tikanga - subjectivism, arā, ti'aturiraa i runga i te "mana'o me pūmanawa" tohunga, e kore e taea e te tahi mau taime e ngohengohe ki te whakamārama kouma. I roto i te mahi, i te tikanga o ngā aromatawai ngā, me te takitahi tohunga mohiotia.

matakite pūtea e kia whakaaro e kore i roto i tonu, ki te kore te au e tohu i te tikanga e whai wāhi fakafalala me moni me utu i taua āhuatanga rite te wa. E rua momo o ngā - te au o te tupu tamau e hua i huringa pūmau au rangitahi rārangi ranei, tātaritanga o nga huringa tamau i roto i ngā tino whakarato. Ko te drawback matua o tenei tikanga - he ta'etoka'i oti mo nga āhuatanga taupori, ōhanga me te tahi atu.

Ka taea te whakamana tohu pūtea mā te whakamahi i ngā kitenga tauanga e kawea i roto i ki te tetahi auautanga. Tool o matakite tauanga he au tauira inenga o. Tauwhāiti te hunga tuatahi i arotakea i runga i te pūtake o te turanga tatauranga e wātea ana, a ka hīkaro ngā mo te wā wā motuhake.

Matapae tukua ki a matou whakaaro kōwhiringa taea katoa ki te whakapai ake i te pūnaha pūtea i raro i tauari rerekē o te whanaketanga ōhanga, te hinonga ōhanga me te āhuatanga mākete. kia poto matakite pūtea, i.e., Kei te whakaaro tātai pāngarau katoa te wā o te kotahi tau, wā-waenga-(3-5 tau) me te wā roa (i runga i te 5 tau). kawea ana tēnei momo o te matakite i roto i runga i ngā taumata ōhanga e toru (motu, rohe, me te ngāwari hinonga pakihi).

taumata National whakarato te tātaitanga e hanga i nga rauemi pūtea o te kāwanatanga, whakatakoto ana te aronga mo ratou whanaketanga. Ko te hua o tenei matapae ko te kohikohinga o te pūtea kāwanatanga.

Ko rite ki te taumata motu matapae pūtea taumata rohe forecasting. I te taumata o ngā hinonga ohaoha matakite ko te whakahaere pūtea, e ngā i roto i te whanaketanga o ngā wāhi o te whanaketanga hinonga me te hanganga o ngā rauemi pūtea mo te heke mai. Ano hoki, i tenei wā, te whakamāramatanga o te rautaki e e whakarite te pūmautanga pūtea o te tūranga o te hinonga, me te te creditworthiness me whakaea.